Luxury Watch Bubble Finally Bursting?! Rolex, AP, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille and…

When will the luxury watch market bubble pop? Any time soon? On this video I’ll discuss what’s likely to happen with some of the hot models and watch brands at the moment!

It’s no secret that the watch market is super inflated right now. Many people are in the sidelines wishing that the “bubble” in high end watches would pop, while some watch collectors and connoisseurs might be wondering if their pieces are going to depreciate significantly. I say….it depends!

First of all, I don’t think that what people call a “bubble” in the luxury watch market is a bubble at all. This is not like the real estate bubble heading into the collapse of 2008 or the NASDAQ dotcom stock market bubble of the year 2000.

I do think that there’s some watch brands right now with prices that are a little bit inflated, but not brands like Rolex, which have performed strongly since the beginning of time. There were people buying vintage Rolex watches back in the 1960s and those watches are selling right now for 50 times what their original retail price was. This is appreciation over time, not a bubble. Just head on to our blog post and see our 50-year comparison between Rolex watches and the stock market….and we wrote that around 5 years ago!

So if you’re hoping that the bubble burst so that you can pick up ceramic date Submariners for $4,000 a piece, you might be very disappointed.

On this video I cover brands like the Rolex Batman, the Hulk, Submariner, and also other solid brands like Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe that I don’t think will experience much of a temporary price drop if the market goes South.

One brand that we have to watch carefully though is Richard Mille. I don’t have the same faith in how the prices of Richard Mille watches that I do for Rolex, AP and Patek Philippe.

And the brand whose name starts with an H that I won’t even mention, well that brand has already experienced major price drops across the board. I feel so sorry for anyone who purchased their $200,000+ tourbillons. Some of those I won’t even pay $30,000 for!

I will update this video after Baselworld 2019 is out of the way and we see the new models that luxury watch brands are releasing.

So what is your take on the watch market bubble and potential crash? Let me know in the comments below.

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Greg Bacho says:

There have been rumblings of an increase in Rolex steel sport inventories. And as a matter of fact I got a call from my AD to tell me my Explorer 1 came in. Supply and demand will ultimately settle the market down.

danang pamungkas says:

The suisse is too smart to let their product into buble burst

Halfmoon67 says:

Great and informed video ! Always a pleasure to watch your vids ! Cheers

master G says:

One of the best and honest watch videos on YouTube. Liked and subscribed!

J says:

spitting nothin but truth bra

Pedro Castro says:

Pause at 6:50. One of those is a fake watch.

mrg1911 says:

China will cool off and simply make availability loosen up a tad for Rolex.
Patek makes such low volume they will always sell everything they make regardless of the economy.

LuxWatchesForNewbies says:

Rolex @ Basel needs to have a new Submariner with a ceramic dial to keep up with Omega. Tell me why I’m wrong.

Yu Fan says:

Great video

Arthur’s Tube says:

Once it’s hype and hard to get hold of always going be a bubble for these steel models.

Bruno Schoelkopf says:

Man, Eric is back! Cool! Richard Mille is not a bubble at all. Mr. Mille knows exactly what he is doing in terms of marketing. His company will never produce according to the demand. There will be always less Richard Mille watches than customers that want one and can afford it.

mrg1911 says:

What are your thoughts on Vacheron Constantin?

Matic says:

Richard mille, Roger Dubuis and other bullshit skeleton racing watches will tank. others wont

adaptivekalman says:

I would buy two Grand Seiko spring drive instead of one Rolex. I don’t think watches are investment,they are tools and there are way better investments.

yooser naime says:

Why are you talking with your hands?

Noel tiersan says:

With what Richard Mille has released this year, I feel it’s gonna burst like that H brand soon. The candy collection from this year’s SIHH looks like it’s made for kids.

Kevin Diaz says:

Eric is there anyway you could get your hands on a new Batman? I know I am asking for a unicorn but I thought I would ask.

Asim Wazir says:

Body language of this guy look like a blind one

Morgan Brock says:

Rolex retail is a discount right now. People are stupid to pay over sticker online just because they are impatient. Buy Rolex the way it’s meant to be bought and you won’t pay $11k for a bruiser.

Balkan88 says:

“this is a hobby first” true

Tripico says:

Beste content for watches etc style

Paul B says:

I just sold my 2 year old Batman for $1,000 more than I bought it for. I made 1k wearing a watch, how sick is that? This is not a bubble? Not in my book, took that money new Boxster downpayment and feel soo much better about it now. Because I know that selling used watch after 2 years for more than I bought it for isn’t normal and if it happens I must take advantage of it. So I did. 718 here I come!

In real terms (adjusted for inflation) Rolex prices from 1957 to 2010 went nowhere and from 2010 till today we had 70% appreciation (bubble). If you made money on owning a luxury consumer good and can sell it at profit, please sell it. Don’t be stupid. Use the money for something that is cheap today. Like a discounted car with 2018 production year.

Mr. Inzeo says:

I want the watch your wearing!

ShindyK2 says:

Patek and Rolex are Kings. AP and VC not doing so hot. Omega is business as usual.

Everyone else who are relatively-new are about go down.

Tom van der Poorten says:

nice cuban sir

oJo says:

Market is full of overpriced frankenwatches. Go to an official store if you want something original, keep it in your safe if you want it to appreciate in value. The bubble is real resellers are ruining watches to keep up with demand.

Sergey Zerkin says:

And no ap doesn’t go over retail .. check the pricing again …

Ariel Avi says:

Feel, Feel, Feel…”Feelings AREN’T FACTS!!!” —Unknown.

Sergey Zerkin says:

I disagree … i think it’s gonna grow just like real astate … people need to invest … the real inflation is not 5 percent what they teach you in Schools it’s twenty … so it’s inflation plus a little bit of speculation … Rolex learned from patek … other brands followed … people buy watches as an investment … that the reality today

Judo Kinkali says:

Friends in Miami are telling me that a bunch of Venezuelan upper crust exiles are buying gold day-date Presidents to celebrate the CIA coup. Have you heard anything about this?

francesco arbia says:


Angelo Picasso says:

Rolex can keep going higher the dealers are empty

Mr. Inzeo says:

I tried to buy a batman and the guy wanted $15,000

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